Marlowsphere Blog (#123)

The last two blogs (#121/#122) took an overall look at job growth/job prospects for those in the so-called “creative class.” This is an appropriate time of year to do so given that May and early June are when college students attend graduation commencement ceremonies.

In this blog I take a specific look at those wishing to enter the fields of architecture, multimedia, and film.

Job Growth Outlook 2012-2022

• Architects: +17%
• Multimedia Artists & Animators: +6%
• Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators: +3%

If any conclusion can be drawn from the numbers in this group of “creative class” disciplines, it is this: there is an ongoing seismic shift away from the printed word (and what it takes to create works with printed words) and towards the dominance of the visual image, generally speaking.

It is arguable that this shift has been taking place since the commercial introduction of the telegraph in 1844. Historically speaking, the telegraph (sometimes called the Victorian Internet) is the first significant electronic communications medium that subsequently led to broadcast radio, then broadcast television, cable, and then the Internet. In between these electronic technology developments we can point to early computers, desktops, laptops, satellites, CDs, DVDs, and now a host of mobile devices, et al. The list of electronic devices is overwhelming.

At least one other conclusion can be readily identified. The explosive growth of electronic devices has, over a period of 170+ years shifted the dominance of the printed word—and all the professions required to accomplish the effective and efficient use of printed words—towards the visual image—and all the professions required to accomplish the effective and efficient use of visual images. In this context, it is no historical accident that since the end of WWII “image” has become more dominant than “substance,” or so it seems. the printed word

As with the previous two blogs, the following Job Growth/Job Prospects descriptions are taken directly from the pertinent Occupational Outlook Handbook (online) of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program.
 
Architects: +17%

Employment of architects is projected to grow 17 percent from 2012 to 2022, faster than the average for all occupations.

Architects will be needed to make plans and designs for the construction and renovation of homes, offices, retail stores, and other structures. As campus buildings age, many school districts and universities are expected to build new facilities or renovate existing ones. Demand is expected for more healthcare facilities as the baby-boomer population ages and as more individuals use healthcare services.

Demand is projected for architects with knowledge of green design, also called sustainable design. Sustainable design emphasizes the efficient use of resources, such as energy and water conservation; waste and pollution reduction; and environmentally friendly design, specifications, and materials. Rising energy costs and increased concern about the environment have led to many new buildings being built with more sustainable designs.

With a growing number of students graduating with architectural degrees, strong competition for internships and jobs in the field is expected. Competition for jobs will be especially strong at the most prestigious architectural firms. Those with up-to-date technical skills and training in sustainable design could have an advantage.

Employment of architects is strongly tied to the activity of the construction industry. Therefore, these workers may experience periods of unemployment when there is a slowdown in requests for new projects or when the overall level of construction falls.

Multimedia Artists & Animators: +6%

Employment of multimedia artists and animators is projected to grow 6 percent from 2012 to 2022, slower than the average for all occupations. Projected growth will be due to increased demand for animation and visual effects in video games, movies, and television. Job growth [in the United States] will be slowed, however, by companies hiring animators and artists who work overseas. Studios often save money on animation by using lower paid workers outside of the United States.

Consumers will continue to demand more realistic video games, movie and television special effects, and three-dimensional movies. They will also demand newer computer hardware, which adds to the complexity of the games themselves. Video game studios will require additional multimedia artists and animators to meet this increased demand. Some of the additional work may be sent overseas.

In addition, an increased demand for computer graphics for mobile devices, such as smart phones, could lead to more job opportunities. Multimedia artists will be needed to create animation for games and applications for mobile devices.

Despite modest job growth, there will be competition for job openings because many recent graduates are interested in entering the occupation. Opportunities should be best for those who have a wide range of skills or who specialize in a highly specific type of animation or effect.

Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators: +3%
 
Employment of film and video editors and camera operators is projected to grow 3 percent from 2012 to 2022, slower than the average for all occupations.

Job growth is expected to be slow in broadcasting because automatic camera systems reduce the need for camera operators at many TV stations. Because of the public’s continued strong demand for new movies and TV shows, companies are hiring more people as the motion picture industry becomes more productive.

Production companies and video freelancers are working within new content delivery methods, such as mobile and online TV, which has led to more work for operators and editors. These delivery methods are still in their early stages, yet they provide an opportunity for operators and editors to showcase their work.

In broadcasting, the consolidation of roles, such as field reporters who edit their own work, may lead to fewer jobs for editors at TV stations. However, more editors are expected to be needed in the motion picture industry because of an increase in special effects and content.

Job openings are projected to be in entertainment hubs such as New York and Los Angeles because specialized editing jobs are needed there. Still, film and video editors and camera operators will face strong competition for jobs. Those with more experience at a TV station or on a film set should have the best prospects.

The job prospects for writers & authors, editors, and journalists will be covered in the next blog.

If you have any questions or comments about this or any other of my blogs, please write to me at
meiienterprises@aol.com.

Eugene Marlow, Ph.D.
June 1, 2015

© Eugene Marlow 2015

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Marlowsphere Blog (#121)

Practioners in the creative arts are in trouble.

According to author Scott Timberg in his recently distributed book Culture Crash: The Killing of the Creative Class (Yale University Press, 2015):

The creative class is melting. . . .

Record shops and independent bookstores close at a steady clip; newspaper and magazines announce repeated waves of layoffs. Tower Records crashed in 2006, costing 3,000 jobs. The bankruptcy of Border Books in 2011—almost 700 stores closed, putting roughly 11,000 people out of work—is the most tangible and recent example. One of the last video rental shops in Los Angeles—Rocket Video—closed soon after. On a grand scale, some 260,000 jobs were lost in traditional publishing and journalism in the three years after 2007, according to U.S. News & World Report. In newspapers alone, the website Paper Cuts tracked more than 40,000 job cuts in the three years after 2008. (p. 15).

Timberg’s latest offering seems to be a counterpoint, a bookend to Richard Florida’s The Rise of the Creative Class (Revisited) (Basic Books 2014), described as follows on Amazon.com:

Initially published in 2002, The Rise of the Creative Class quickly achieved classic status for its identification of forces then only beginning to reshape our economy, geography, and workplace. Weaving story-telling with original research, Richard Florida identified a fundamental shift linking a host of seemingly unrelated changes in American society: the growing importance of creativity in people’s work lives and the emergence of a class of people unified by their engagement in creative work. Millions of us were beginning to work and live much as creative types like artists and scientists always had, Florida observed, and this Creative Class was determining how the workplace was organized, what companies would prosper or go bankrupt, and even which cities would thrive.

In The Rise of the Creative Class (Revisited), Florida further refines his occupational, demographic, psychological, and economic profile of the Creative Class, incorporates a decade of research, and adds five new chapters covering the global effects of the Creative Class and exploring the factors that shape “quality of place” in our changing cities and suburbs.

Timberg takes fellow author Florida to task in terms of the definition of “creative class” when he writes:

“. . .a more useful understanding of the creative class would include anyone who helps create or disseminate culture. So along with sculptors and architects, I mean deejays, bookstore clerks, theatre set designers, people who edit books in publishing houses and so on.” (p. 10).

The balance of Timberg’s 310-page book is essentially a description of what has happened to the so-called creative class—Architects, Dancers & Choreographers, Graphic Designers, Multimedia Artists & Animators, Music Directors & Composers, Musicians & Singers, Actors, Photographers, Craft & Fine Artists, Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators, Writers & Authors, Editors, and Reporters, Correspondents, and Broadcast News Analysts—especially since the beginning of the “Great Recession.” It is not a pretty picture, especially those in the legacy print and electronic media: Writers & Authors, Editors, and Reporters, Correspondents, and Broadcast News Analysts.

A closing chapter attempts to provide a solution to the problems inculcated by the newer media, namely, the Internet and other social media, but it is akin to attempting to stop the forward  movement of a glacier during an ice age: the results are inexorable.

It would not be fruitful to attempt to argue with Timberg’s analytical descriptions of what has happened to the creative class in terms of societal value and economic consequences. Even cursory, anecdotal evidence supports his perspective. In this blog, therefore, I will look to the future for some answers. In this context, I looked at the employment predictions from the Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, namely its “Occupational Outlook Handbook.”

Following are the numbers for 13 categories in the “creative class” for the decade 2012-2022 with respect to job growth and job prospects:

The Overall Picture: 2012-2022 Job Growth/Job Prospects

• Architects: +17%
• Dancers & Choreographers: +13%
• Graphic Designers: +7%
• Multimedia Artists & Animators: +6%
• Music Directors & Composers: +5%
• Musicians & Singers: +5%
• Actors: +4%
• Photographers: +4%
• Craft & Fine Artists: +3%
• Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators: +3%
• Writers & Authors: +3%
• Editors: -2%
• Reporters, Correspondents, and Broadcast News Analysts: -13-14%

To put this in a larger context, the average job growth rate for all occupations in the same period, according to the Occupational Outlook Handbook, is 11%!

Clearly, according to these projections, architects and dancers/choreographers appear to have the best (positive) prospects for job growth over the period 2012-2022. On the other side, editors, reporters, correspondents, and broadcast news analysts have the worst (negative) prospects for job growth in the same period.

What is not so apparent is that these numbers do not reflect the (perhaps) unintended consequences of the new media, specifically the Internet. According to Jaron Lanier’s book Who Owns the Future? (Simon & Shuster 2013) the few success stories distract from what has really happened: The Internet has destroyed the livelihoods of the creative class’s middle tier—musicians, photographers, and journalists—but that it will move on to undercut other middle class jobs.

In many places Lanier’s posits that the new economy “. . . is good for whomever owns the computer server.” This perspective points to the dramatic shift with respect to the creation of content. Take several of the leading Internet web sites: YouTube, e-bay, PayPal, Spotify (and a host of online music distributors), Google, and Yahoo, Facebook, LinkedIn, and other lesser known web sites, such as cdbaby.com. None of these web sites create content. All these web sites provide a platform for content created by users. Users create the content. Meanwhile, each web site makes money from users use of the web site.

The next blog will take a deeper look at the job prospects for those in the fine and performing arts. A subsequent blog will look at job prospects for those in other “creative” professions, such as architects, on the one hand, and reporters, on the other.

If you have any questions or comments about this or any other of my blogs, please write to me at
meiienterprises@aol.com.

Eugene Marlow, Ph.D.
May 4, 2015

© Eugene Marlow 2015

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