Past Ironies That Resonate in the Present Day

Top 10 World EconomiesThe Marlowsphere (Blog #99)

Russia and China are very much in the news these days and have been for some time: China for mostly economic reasons, Russia for military-political reasons. Their recent actions are on a continuum that reaches back to World War II.

It is ironic that following the defeat of Germany and Japan in World War II the United States, together with its allies (but not Russia), worked to rebuild Germany and Japan. Today, Germany has the strongest economy in Europe; Japan, the third strongest economy in the world behind the United States and now China that has played catch-up in the last 20-25 years.

It is also ironic that Japan’s aggression before and during World War II only strengthened China’s emerging nationalism: a nationalism, however, of a communist stripe.  In 1949, four years after Japan’s surrender, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under Mao’s leadership, defeated the Guomindang (GMD) and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The GMD retreated to what is now Taiwan. The West was ultimately excluded from establishing a relationship with the CCP and the Chinese people.

Winston Churchill delivers "Iron Curtain SpeechBoth the Soviet Union and China put up political and economic barriers to the west following World War II. In the beginning of this period that became known as “The Cold War” at a now famous speech at Westminster  College in Fulton, Missouri on March 5, 1946, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill coined the phrase “iron curtain” with reference to the Soviet Union:

“From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an iron curtain has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe.

Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in some cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow.”[1]

The term “The Bamboo Curtain” is similarly a Cold War euphemism for the political demarcation between the Communist and non-communist states of East Asia, particularly the People’s Republic of China.[2]

It is also ironic that while China embraced a Communist approach to government and social order, following Russia’s Stalinist example, both countries ultimately turned to western-style economic principles and practices in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Russia’s former self, the Union of Soviet Socialists Republics (U.S.S.R.), met its demise starting in November 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Following this, former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachov made a visionary decision to disband the U.S.S.R. when he saw the economic handwriting on the wall: that Russian style Communism and Communism itself did not work. In December 1991 the U.S.S.R. was no more, especially since many of the republics in the Soviet Union had declared their unilateral independence. Unfortunately, while Russia is one of the top 10 economies in the world, its government, while having the appearance of the democratic rule of law, still has the feel of a one-man rule under Vladimir Putin.

Chinese & Russian Flags Leadership

In the case of China, Mao’s demise in September 1976 eventually allowed the new Chinese leadership to open an economic door to the west four years later. Unfortunately, while China has moved up the ladder of economic growth and power, the government still clings to a one party rule—an approach that appeared to have continuity on the eve of China’s recent 10-year cycle of leadership change. The question becomes: can a country with the largest population on the planet continue its path of economic growth without political transparency at the highest levels? On a more mundane level, can a one-party rule survive in a country where western-style rock ‘n roll and jazz—music of protest and individuality—is prevalent, especially in Beijing and Shanghai?

The China of the early 21st century is a country in a continuous state of transformation. The number of educated Chinese continues to grow, those in poverty have shrunk from hundreds of millions to tens of millions, and its economy continues on its upward slope. This social and economic trajectory initiated within a few years of Mao’s death and the arrest of the so-called “Gang of Four,” that included Mao’s wife, evolved slowly at first and has accelerated in the last 10-15 years, marked pointedly by China overtaking Japan as the world’s largest economy behind the United States. The contradiction, of course, in China’s evolution since Mao’s death is the persistent political dominance of the CCP—the Chinese Communist Party. It is a schizophrenic existence. On the one hand, China’s populace, especially its business class, is told “make as much money as you can”; on the other, it is warned “but leave the politics alone.”

It is a matter of time (perhaps a generation or two in China) before the inherent, brewing conflict between economic entrepreneurialship, the desire for political and individual freedom of expression, and the political dominance of the Chinese Communist Party come to loggerheads.

In Russia, the situation appears to be different. The dismantling of the Soviet Union—and hence a transition to an apparent democracy—was accomplished overnight and it left the Russian people confused and in disarray. Almost a quarter of a century later President Putin is banking on the nationalism that has emerged in Russia to (apparently) begin re-establish the former Soviet Union. His latest move: the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

China looking forward, Russia looking backFrom this observer’s perspective the Chinese are moving to openness and a more democratic style of leadership, especially on the local level, step by step, albeit very small steps. The Chinese seem to understand you cannot take a very large population and release democracy on it in a day. The other motivation, of course, is that the leaders of the Communist Party want to stay in power as long as possible with the understanding that nothing lasts forever. Russia, on the other hand, prefers brute force. China appears to be looking forward. Russia’s leadership is looking backward.

Please write to me at meiienterprises@aol.com if you have any comments on this or any other of my blogs.

Eugene Marlow, Ph.D.
May 19, 2014

[1] http://www.historyguide.org/europe/churchill.html

[2] http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Bamboo_Curtain

© Eugene Marlow 2014

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